Serie A Spezia vs Genoa 10/26/2021 Prediction and Match Preview

This is a match to the death between two teams that will fight hard to avoid the relegation this season. 

Spezia (2 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw) are coming into this match after a 2-1 loss on the road against Sampdoria (0.97xG – 1.06xG). They had 71% of ball possession in that match, they created 17 scoring chances (Sampdoria had 6) and they had 7 shots on goal (against just 2 by their opponents).

They are sitting at the 17th spot of the Serie A with 7 points, scoring 11 and conceding 22 goals (which is the worst defense in the league). Moreover, they have not been any good at home so far (1 win, 3 losses, 0 draws), scoring 5 goals and conceding 7 in the process. They have the 2nd worst xG with 9.33 and the 6th worst xGA with 15.15. 

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Serie A Spezia vs Genoa 10/26/2021 Prediction and Match Preview

Genoa (1 win, 5 losses, 3 draws) are coming into this match after a frustrating 3-2 loss on the road against Torino (2.24xg – 2.35xG). It was a pretty balanced match in other statistics, but Genoa never really got it going in that match. They have now conceded multiple goals in 8 of their 9 matches so far, also scoring in 7 of those.

Genoa are sitting at the 18th spot of the Serie A with 6 points, scoring 14 and conceding 21 goals (2nd worst defense in the league). On the road they have 1 win, 3 losses and 1 draw, scoring 7 goals and conceding 12 in the process (which is the 2nd worst away defense).

They have the 9th worst xG with 12.3, and the 3rd worst xGA with 16.29 (while conceding 21 goals, almost 5 more than they are expected, which indicates an underperforming defense). 

Spezia vs Genoa. Genoa won both matches against Spezia last season, by 2-1 in this venue and by 2-0 at home. Now these two teams have the two worst defenses in the league, while their offensive lines aren’t that bad.

They are both expected to fight with 3-4 teams to avoid the relegation, so any point counts. Since they can’t play any defense, we are taking the Over 2.5 Goals here.

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