La Liga Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona 10/27/2021 Prediction and Match Preview

Vallecano are coming off a 3-2 loss on the road against Betis (1.43xG – 1.17xG), in a match where they conceded a late penalty kick to lose.

Vallecano are sitting at the 7th spot with 16 points (5 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw). But they have won ALL 4 home matches (only Sevilla has done so).

When it comes to xGA, Rayo Vallecano have the 6th worst xGA with 13.27, and 4th worst defense with 12 conceded (normal numbers). At home they have the 4th BEST xGA with 3.17, and 2nd best home defense with 2 conceded (also normal numbers).

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La Liga Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona 10/27/2021 Prediction and Match Preview

Barcelona are coming off a bad loss to Real Madrid at home (1.59xG – 1.55xG), in a match where 2 of those goals were scored in the stoppage time. Prior to that they were not anything special in their 1-0 home win over Dynamo Kyiv, and they didn’t beat Valencia as easy as the 3-1 suggests.

Barcelona are sitting 9th with 15 points and a 4-2-3 record. They have the 3rd best xG with 15.77, and 4th best offense with 15 goals (which are normal numbers). On the road they have the WORST xG with 2.29 AND WORST offense with just 1 goal.

However, they are the only team with 3 away matches, so we’ll look towards the average xGs on the road: 1.18 at Bilbao, 0.36 at Cadiz, 0.75 at Atletico Madrid. These are absolutely horrible numbers. Barcelona have the 4th best xGA with 8.64, and the 6th best defense with 10 conceded (normal numbers). On the road they have the 4th best xGA with 4.21 and the 3rd best defense with 3 conceded (normal numbers). 

Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona. Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla are the only teams to have won all 4 home matches so far. Rayo are exceptional at home so far, while Barcelona are struggling a lot on the road.

Rayo’s offense has been overperforming this season, especially at home, but they are up against a mediocre Barcelona defensive line that is also coming off a bad loss in the El Classico. Taking BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals here, or the Over 2.75 Goals. 

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